I rise each morning, shave with soap and razor, don clothes of cotton and wool, read a paper, drink a coffee heated by gas or electricity and go to work with the aid of petrol and an internal combustion engine. At a centrally heated/air conditioned office I type on a Qwerty keyboard; I might later visit a pub or theatre. Most people I know do likewise.
Not one of these activities has altered qualitatively over the past century, while in the previous hundred years they altered beyond recognition. We do not live in the age of technological revolution. We live in the age of technological stasis, but do not realize it. We watch the future and have stopped watching the present.
When I finish reading most books, they hang around on shelves, prop up tables or go to friends. I can take it in two hands and bash it over the heads of every techno-nerd, computer geek and neophiliac futurologist I meet.
No, research and development do not equate with economic progress. No, the computer is not a stunning technological advance, just an extension of electronic communication as known for over a century. No, the internet has not transformed most people's lives, just helped them do faster what they did before. No, weapons technology has not transformed warfare, merely wasted stupefying sums of money while soldiers win or lose by firing rifles.
Technological innovation is always hyped by those lobbying for money, usually from government. But, if we only attended to ends rather than means we would waste less and get more right. Scientists never feed into their equations the opportunity cost of their successes, let alone the cost of their failures. Where now are such "life-changing revolutions" as supersonic travel, manned moon flight, coal hydrogenation, system-built housing, brain lobotomy, drip-dry shirts and electric knives? How come more goods travel by ship than ever? How come the fastest-growing domestic industry is housework and do-it-yourself?
Thesis that civilisation must innovate or die is rubbish. Nations are not sharks that must move to breathe. Yet we are so dazzled by newness as to lose the power of skepticism, indeed of reason itself. The result is a grotesque overselling of the new and neglect of what is tried and tested.
There is nothing recent in this phenomenon. Steam power was hugely expensive in resources and manpower and for most of its life probably less efficient than horse power. At sea it wiped out sail long before it could economically and safely replace it. On land it required even more horses (to supply coal and service its terminals) than before. Even today there would probably be less traffic on roads if outrageously uneconomic trains did not exist - and so did not divert car journeys to stations - though nobody will believe it.
"Techno- Nationalism" is regularly proclaimed by politicians as vital to domestic economies as they pour money into government research. There is no evidence of any need for this. Global technology transfer is virtually free. What impedes its growth is not lack of invention but government restriction on free trade. Shrewd countries "borrow" technology, as did Japan after the war and the tiger economies from America in the 1990s.
Most attics and garages are stuffed with kit for which there was no sensible use, from exercise bicycles to fondue machines. Middle-class women probably do more manual labour than in the 19th century, assisted by such old technology as the washing machine and vacuum cleaner. Small wonder they still consume those ancient standbys, alcohol, nicotine, cannabis and opium.
Of course, the computer has radically speeded communication. But for the overwhelming bulk of users (still only half of Britons and a tiny fraction of the globe) it merely supplements the post and the telephone. Most people send emails back and forth twice a day, roughly the same exchange as the Victorian letter post achieved. Amazon and eBay have replicated but not replaced the retail market. Television, 80 years old, and radio have improved but not changed over time. Both were essentially Victorian innovations.
The greatest techno-dazzle involves flying. The glamour of defying gravity created a global Icarus complex. Air forces have won over every generation of 20th-century politician, yet have never delivered. They have killed civilians and wrecked property but not won wars. More serious, the cost of new planes so overwhelms budgets as to leave land troops under-equipped - as is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ministers are putty in the hands of airborne weapons suppliers. Yet any analysis of the past half-century will show the rifle, the mortar and (in Africa) the machete are the tools of success. The technology of war, supposed galvaniser of innovation, has barely changed in a hundred years. Indeed by replacing battlefront bravery with stand-off cowardice, air innovation could be said to contribute to defeat.
The fastest-rising aid to mobility is another Victorian invention, the car, dependent on internal carbon combustion. Flights are trivial, a minuscule percentage in any sense necessary. Planes are used overwhelmingly for holidays, business and perks. Yet lobbyists sell planes (and airports) as "economically vital" to the nation.
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon if not so at least to a state one would have never thought of. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil” “Peak coal” “Peak Gas” “Peak everything”. In a few years humans will pay more for water than they pay for food today. The II world war as we know was fought to curb imperialism, the III world war will be for Oil & Water.
The rising temperatures world over are heating up this planet more than ever, what that means is change in weather & climate patterns. The world’s glaciers are melting rapidly. This is going to paralyze half of India, Pakistan & Bangladesh in the Indian subcontinent. All the 3 countries get major water from the Himalayan ice India will see the largest human migration within the next 25 years. people from the plains of Ganges, Yamuna, Brahmaputra and the south of Himalayas will face acute water problems because of the ice melting. These rivers will no longer be perennial in nature.
Prices of some of the commodities as per my prediction in 2015 or even before that.....
- Petrol Rs 120 / liter $ 7 per Gallon
- Milk Rs 70 / liter
- Coke Rs 40 / 300ml
- Wheat Rs 40/kg
- Sugar Rs 60/kg
- Tea Rs 400/kg
- Bus Journey Rs 400 for 200kms
- Electricity 3 times of today’s cost
Imagine living in a world with these prices and a huge scarcity of water, food, minerals, oil & gas and local goods & services.
Businesses will collapse, Banks will go bankrupt, and there will be blackouts and starvation and many new diseases to combat with. I won’t say that the earth will die but human race will certainly begin to die and will go through a massively troubled transition. This phenomenon will be witnessed by us before 2020.
The following events suggest what we have in store for us in the near future:
- The Financial Crisis of 2008 & the collapse of Merrill Lynch,AIG, GM & Lehman Brothers
- US Federal Reserve printing more Benjamin bills .Do they know what the are doing?
- The massive volcano burst in Iceland in May 2010 & AGAIN in May of 2011.(Next in line..Yellow Stone National Park Volcano)
- Debt crisis in Europe. This is a ticking bomb! ( Portugal,Italy,Ireland, Greece & Spain) add Hungary & UK will join soon)
- Political Unrest in Egypt,Syria,Tunisia,Libya,Yemen,Sudan & other gulf region countries who are oil reserves .
- A massive 9 earthquake +Tsunami destroying Japan costing $400 Billions.
- Iran Nuclear program
- $ 120 "Oil on the Boil" . Oil will get the world back into recession.
- INFLATION Beat that ! All over the world.
Is all this development worth the massive destruction and loss to mankind & Nature? Keep questioning !!!!
By – Dhiraj
